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經濟學人:該死,還不貶值! Weaken, dammit!

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Finance and Economics;Japanese exchange-rate policy; Weaken, dammit! Japan's policymakers try subtle approaches to cheapen the yen

財經;日本匯率政策;該死,還不貶值!日本政策制定者暗中尋求本幣貶值;
With their overnight-lending rates at zero for most of the past decade, the Japanese public long ago stopped caring about interest rates. Instead the yen is their focus. Shoppers may revel in its current strength against the dollar but in the news media, the financial markets and corporate Japan, it is a relentless source of woe. Carlos Ghosn, the boss of Nissan and Renault, publicly lambasts it as a “1,000-pound gorilla” that hurts his ability to sell Japanese cars abroad. Its strength is increasingly becoming a political issue, too.
在過去十年的大部分時間里,日本隔夜拆借利率都為零,日本民眾早就對利率失去了興趣,而日元則成為他們關注的焦點。日元兌美元匯率走強也許是購物者愿意聽到的消息,但對于新聞媒體、金融市場和日本企業來說,這卻是國內經濟低迷的罪魁禍首。日產—雷諾的總裁卡洛斯·戈恩公開斥責日元升值是“一頭1000磅的大猩猩”損害了日本汽車在海外市場的競爭力。同時,強勢日元也逐漸成為一項政治議題。
Both the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the finance ministry have taken steps recently that analysts believe are surreptitiously aimed at the currency markets. On April 27th the BoJ increased the size of its asset-purchase programme by ¥5 trillion ($62 billion), and extended the maturity limit of government bonds it would buy from two to three years. That enhanced easing measures introduced in February which sharply weakened the yen.
日本央行和財政部最近都采取了一些行動。分析人士指出,這些行動都暗中針對貨幣市場。4月27日,日本央行將資產購買計劃擴容五萬億日元(620億美元),同時將計劃購買的政府債券期限由兩年延長到三年。今年二月推行的寬松貨幣政策使日元大幅貶值。這些舉動進一步加強了這一政策的效力。
Days before, the finance ministry promised the biggest single contribution—a $60 billion slug—to a $430 billion increase in IMF funding which is largely aimed at alleviating concerns about the euro crisis. As a senior official admitted, Japan’s decision was not altruistic. When the euro crisis gets worse, it weakens Japan’s exports to Europe and strengthens the yen, which compounds the first problem. So Japan has a direct interest in market stability.
幾天前, IMF為緩解歐元危機造成的緊張情緒將(可貸)資金規模擴充4300億美元,為響應這一號召,財務部允諾注資600億美元,使日本成為本次注資金額最大的國家。正如一位高級官員承認“日本此舉并非毫無私心”。隨著歐元危機愈演愈烈,削弱了日本對歐洲的出口,進而使日元兌歐元走強——這會使得日本出口形勢進一步惡化。因此,日本經濟形勢與國際市場穩定性直接相關。
Neither institution discusses the currency openly. The BoJ knows that overt currency manipulation is frowned upon as a “beggar-thy-neighbour” policy. But it nonetheless believes the yen’s value is important, because it has an impact on the economic decisions people and companies make. It may influence inflation expectations (of foreign investors, if not deflation-inured domestic ones); and it is a hot potato politically. Influential politicians are pressing the central bank to do more to stoke the economy by pushing down the yen. They brandish figures showing how the BoJ’s asset-purchase programme has undershot that of other big central banks (see chart). Some political parties are proposing reforms that the BoJ fears would curb its independence.
日本央行和財政部都未公開討論過貨幣問題。日本央行當然明白公開操縱匯率這種“以鄰為壑”會招致他國不滿。盡管如此,鑒于日元購買力對公司和個人的經濟決策的影響,央行還是重視日元匯率的。就算匯率不影響日本國民(他們已經習慣了緊縮),也會影響外國投資者的通脹預期。而且從政治層面來看,它也是塊燙手的山芋。現在,那些位高權重的政客們正向央行施壓,要求它采取更多的手段使日元貶值以此刺激國內經濟。他們援引數據表明,日本央行的資產購買計劃(asset-purchase programme)遠不及其他主要國家央行。而日本央行擔心,某些政黨提出的改革方案可能有損其獨立性。
In its latest move, the BoJ seemed keen to remind the markets that it is no miracle worker. The increase in the asset-purchase programme fell short of expectations. It implicitly issued a warning about the danger of monetising debt by printing money. Since its meeting, the yen has strengthened. Masamichi Adachi at J.P. Morgan says that is a reminder that whatever the BoJ does, global risk appetites have a bigger influence on the currency markets.
在最近的行動中日本央行似乎極力提醒市場:不要指望它能創造神跡。擴大資產購買項目未能達到預期目標,這對于央行將債務貨幣化的危險提出了含蓄的警告。摩根大通駐東京高級分析師正道安達(Masamichi Adachi)稱,目前日元走勢堅挺也在提醒投資者,無論日本央行采取何種舉動,全球風險偏好對貨幣市場的影響則要更大一些。
But the yen will not have been forgotten about. Yunosuke Ikeda of Nomura says that on four occasions since 2010 a bigger asset-purchase programme has been followed by government intervention to weaken the yen. He thinks that the government must be at least considering another intervention. What’s more, he believes the IMF loan may be a crafty manoeuvre to help. Japan’s leadership in providing the money, he reckons, may make it easier for it to win international approval if it does choose to sell the yen again.
盡管如此,日元也不會為人們所忽視。野村證券分析師池田指出,自2010年來,政府已經四次干預日元匯率使之貶值,且都伴隨著資產購買項目擴容。他認為日本人政府至少應該考慮再一次干預匯率。此外,日本向IMF提供貸款這一巧妙策略提升了日本的領導力,對日元貶值也有所助益:如果日本政府選擇拋售日元使之貶值,這一策略會幫助日本獲得國際社會支持。

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subtle ['sʌtl]

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adj. 微妙的,敏感的,精細的,狡詐的,不明顯的

 
reminder [ri'maində]

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n. 提醒物,提示

 
current ['kʌrənt]

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n. (水、氣、電)流,趨勢
adj. 流通的

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decade ['dekeid]

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n. 十年

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keen [ki:n]

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adj. 鋒利的,敏銳的,強烈的,精明的,熱衷的 <

 
fell [fel]

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動詞fall的過去式
n. 獸皮
v

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global ['gləubəl]

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adj. 全球性的,全世界的,球狀的,全局的

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gorilla [gə'rilə]

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n. 大猩猩

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influential [.influ'enʃəl]

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adj. 有權勢的,有影響的
n. 有影響力的

 
revel ['revl]

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vi. 狂歡作樂,陶醉 n. 作樂,狂歡

 
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